BY DAN WALTERS, CalMatters Opinion Comuminist
Photo: Siskiyou High School – Yreka, California ca. 1894
Western Mining History.org
In summary
California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s new budget and the Legislature’s budget analyst have widely differing estimates of the state’s revenues and deficit. That means they also diverge on how much money should go to the state’s schools.
When California’s governors and legislators write state budgets, they begin with projecting how much revenue the state is likely to receive.
It’s a semi-educated guess that is often billions of dollars removed from the eventual reality, given the high level of volatility in the state’s taxation system.
With a revenue number in hand, officialdom then calculates how much of it must be allocated to public schools under Proposition 98, the 1988 ballot measure that governs financing of K-12 schools and community colleges.
It’s roughly 40%, but since the revenue assumption is shaky at best, Prop. 98’s complex formulas are subject to varying interpretations. The calculation also includes estimates of local property taxes, so the number that emerges for schools is also rather arbitrary.
Whatever the figure may be in any given year, it never precisely squares with reality, which then requires reconciliation in the next budgetary cycle. The 2024-25 budget that Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed this week exemplifies the annual exercise.
When he and the Legislature agreed on a 2023-24 budget last June, they decided that Prop. 98 would give schools, in property taxes and state aid, $110.6 billion in 2021-22, $107.4 billion in 2022-23, and $108.3 billion in 2023-24.
This week’s budget declares that those numbers are cumulatively $11.3 billion too high since revenues are running well under previous estimates. Meanwhile, the Legislature’s budget analyst, Gabe Petek, had calculated that they are $21 billion too high because his revenue estimates are lower than the governor’s.
The differing revenue estimates – and the equally divergent calculations of school financing – together account for most of the $30 billion-plus gap between Newsom’s estimate of a $38 billion deficit and Petek’s $68 billion estimate.
By tapping into a special reserve fund for schools, Newsom’s budget proposal makes up most of his $11.3 billion shortfall between what Prop. 98 requires and what school officials thought they would be getting over the three-year period, thereby shielding them from having to absorb big reductions in money they’ve already spent.
However, if Petek’s more pessimistic revenue estimate turns out to be closer to reality than Newsom’s, schools could take big hits and state officials would face pressure to change how schools are financed and how state aid, whatever the level, is allocated.
The latter generally is based on attendance – so much for each student, with bonus allocations to school districts with substantial numbers of English learners or students from poor households to help them overcome a chronic achievement gap in basic academic skills.
Newsom’s proposed budget projects that K-12 schools will receive $126.8 billion in 2024-25 from local property taxes, state aid and federal funds, or an average of $23,519 per student.
That’s double what it was a decade ago, but there’s no indication that the sharp increase in school spending has resulted in a commensurate increase in academic achievement. The state’s own competency tests, as well as nationwide tests, show little, if any, overall improvement and the achievement gap is as wide as ever.
Per-pupil financing is likely to increase in the years ahead because public school enrollment is declining and Prop. 98’s formula is largely based on revenue, regardless of how many students are in the system.
K-12 enrollment peaked at 6.3 million in 2004, is now below 6 million and is expected to drop to under 5 million in the next decade due to low birthrates and the state’s overall population decline.
It will test whether money is truly the key to educational achievement, as the education establishment contends, or other factors are preventing California kids from realizing their potential.
Members make our mission possible.
Dan Walters has been a journalist for more than 60 years, spending all but a few of those years working for California newspapers. He began his professional career in 1960, at age 16, at the Humboldt Times… More by Dan Walters
- CALFIRE SISKIYOU UNIT HAND CREW SELECTED FOR BLUE RIBBON AWARDPost Views: 17 YREKA – The Blue Ribbon Award was created by the Western Fairs Association, the premier organization dedicated to supporting and promoting the fair industry in the Western United States and Canada, to honor those that go above and beyond to support their annual fair. The 10th District Agricultural Association Board of Directors,
- 10th DAA selects Kenny Elwood for 2026 Golden PassPost Views: 14 YREKA- The 10th District Agricultural Association Board of Directors is happy to announce a Lifetime Pass will be presented to Kenny Elwood of Bella Vista. The pass will be given at the opening ceremonies of the Siskiyou Golden Fair on June 24th. Opening ceremony begins at 5:00 PM at the fairground flagpole
- FICTITIOUS BUSINESS NAME STATEMENT: Carson’s Window Coverings & MorePost Views: 18 Filing No.: 2026-47-0190FILED IN: Siskiyou CountyDATE: 06-03-2026Laura Bynam, ClerkBy: D.Brooks,Deputy ClerkFICTITIOUS BUSINESS NAME STATEMENTThe following person (persons) is (are) doing business as:Carson’s Window Coverings & More108 S. BroadwayYreka, CA 96097 in SiskiyouMailing Address:108 S. BroadwayYreka, CA 96097530 598-9247Registered Owner(s):Maridee CarsonThis Business is conducted by: An IndividualThe registrant commenced to transact business under
- Traffic Stop in Siskiyou County Leads to $1.9 Million Cocaine Seizure, Driver ArrestedPost Views: 32 Source – Siskiyou County Sheriff’s Office -$1.9 Million Cocaine Seizure Results in Arrest- On May 29, 2026 at approximately 1150 hours, a Siskiyou County Deputy conducted a traffic stop on a 2022 Mazda CX5 for a mechanical violation. During the traffic stop, the driver was found to be unlicensed and demonstrating multiple
- F-35A Lightning II Jets from Luke AFB Arrive for Two-Week Training at Kingsley FieldPost Views: 20 Siskiyou County, California — Residents in Siskiyou County and surrounding areas may notice increased jet activity and noise in the skies over Shasta Valley and nearby regions as a squadron of advanced F-35A Lightning II fighters from Luke Air Force Base, Arizona, trains with the Oregon Air National Guard’s 173rd Fighter Wing.
