Reprint: CalMatters
cover photo: Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas speaks during a floor session at the state Capitol in Sacramento on Jan. 22, 2024. Photo by Fred Greaves for CalMatters
In summary
The Legislative Analystโs Office projects the 2024-25 shortfall at $73 billion, putting more pressure on legislators and the governor to find savings.
The biggest challenge facing lawmakers and Gov. Gavin Newsom is the state budget deficit โ and it just got bigger.
Today, the Legislative Analystโs Office projected the shortfall as $15 billion higher, or $73 billion.
The analystโs office had pegged the 2024-25 deficit at $58 billion in January, using Newsomโs revenue estimates when he presented his initial budget proposal.
On Friday, Newsomโs Department of Finance reported that preliminary General Fund cash receipts in January were $5 billion below (or nearly 20%) the governorโs budget forecast. Unless state tax revenues pick up significantly, the bigger number will make it more difficult to balance the state budget just through dipping into reserves and targeted spending cuts.
But exactly how the state can dig its way out โ at least in the Assembly โ remains to be seen. Speaker Robert Rivas told reporters today that the budget has been at the forefront of conversations among Assembly Democrats and that he is very concerned with the growing deficit.
He praised the governorโs commitment to preserving classroom funding, and said he didnโt see a way to avoid dipping into the stateโs reserves, as the governorโs January budget plan proposed โ though the speaker urged a prudent approach to using rainy day savings in case the budget picture worsens in future years.
โWe are very concerned about short-term fixes for long-term problems,โ said Rivas, who took over as speaker last summer, just days after the Legislature and Newsom reached a deal on the 2023-24 budget that covered a $30 billion deficit after two years of record surpluses.
โClearly, we need to prioritize oversight and curb spending and our investments,โ Rivas added.
In the coming weeks, Rivasโ plan calls for an oversight budget subcommittee he formed in December to review the stateโs spending on housing, he said.
Get the facts before you vote in this yearโs primary election.
But, as legislative leaders and the governor have noted, the budget deficit wonโt be addressed just through oversight and cuts. Itโll also mean tougher paths for bills lawmakers introduce this year โ including the return of the single-payer healthcare effort by Democratic Assemblymember Ash Kalra.
โItโs a good idea, but itโs a tough, tough sell, especially in the budget climate that we are experiencing now,โ he said.
And while the governor has shot down any attempt to raise taxes or create new ones to increase state revenues, Rivas did not take a position.
โWe look at all of the strategies when it comes to ensuring that we have a balanced budget โ there are many of those tools that are available,โ he said. โWhich ones are appropriate, Iโm not going to comment on that yet. Thatโs what weโre trying to figure out now.โ
But Rivas may have to make some decisions soon: A spokesperson for Newsomโs Department of Finance issued a statement later today calling on the Legislature to take early action on $8 billion in savings to address the looming deficit. Newsom will propose an updated budget in May before negotiations with legislative leaders and a final spending blueprint in June.
Todayโs updated deficit projection also prompted concern and criticism of Democrats from the Republican caucus. Sen.ย Roger Niello, vice-chairperson of the Senate budget committee, echoed the sentiment on oversight, in a statement; โItโs time for a course correction and a renewed commitment to responsible budgeting that puts the needs of our residents first.โ
more on the state budget
https://calmatters.org/politics/2024/01/california-budget-lao-review-newsom/
https://calmatters.org/politics/2024/01/newsom-budget-california/
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